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Observations on capital, companies, and decisions.

Shorter analysis, working ideas, and practical observations from across our research and client work.

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  • September 30, 2026
  • 2:58 pm
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When the Platform Becomes the Product

OpenAI Dots, Instinct, and the feature-compression risk facing AI companies.

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  • September 10, 2026
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Stripe Is Buying the Control Plane for AI Economics

A fundamental analysis of OpenRouter, model-routing economics, and the strategic value of a neutral inference exchange.

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  • August 3, 2026
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Etched: The $21 Billion Bet on Specialized AI Inference

What a $700 million financing round reveals about the economics of inference, the limits of GPU generality, and the emerging contest to reshape AI infrastructure

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  • June 10, 2026
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The Return of Marginal Cost

How to underwrite AI-native software when usage, quality and economics move together.

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